Floodwaters continued rising Wednesday as Western Washington entered the third day of a powerful atmospheric river sequence that has drenched the region, flooded towns and closed roads across Western Oregon and Washington. Rivers from the Olympics to the Cascades are pushing toward historic levels, prompting evacuation orders in Pierce, Snohomish and Skagit counties.
Gov. Bob Ferguson declared a state of emergency Wednesday afternoon, requesting federal support for response and recovery. National Guard Major General Gent Welsh said as many as 300 Guard members are expected to deploy to impacted communities by the end of day Thursday.
As the La Conner Community News went to press Wednesday evening, evacuation orders had been given to the Skagit County towns of Hamilton and Lyman, and everyone in Skagit County’s 100-year floodplain, including La Conner, was on notice to pack their GO bags and finalize their evacuation routes.
The town was quiet, with about half of the businesses on First Street either not opening or closing early. The Swinomish Tribe and La Conner School District announced closures for Thursday and Friday. The Town launched a temporary webpage with emergency information and prepared Maple Hall and the Garden Club for use as a shelter.
Greater risk from levees failing than seawater
Town Emergency Management Commissioner Doug Asbe said officials see a “reasonable chance” of an electrical outage during the storm cycle and urged residents to prepare for that possibility. He also advised drivers to use caution due to hydroplaning risk from persistent rain.
While La Conner is in the floodplain, it has historically had a higher risk from coastal flooding than river flooding, making this moment a little bit different than the imminent danger facing upriver communities. After passing the morning high tide with no coastal flooding issues, town officials say the low-risk saltwater threat has given way to a more serious uncertainty: whether the Skagit River’s record surge will stay inside the levee system — or break through it, sending floodwater across the delta toward town.
When asked about the likelihood of dike or levee failures given forecasted river levels, Andrea Harrison, spokesperson for the Skagit County Department of Emergency Management, said, “it’s likely.”
“This is a catastrophic event if it reaches levels that are predicted,” Harrison said. “If people get evacuation notices, they need to take it seriously and go.”
County officials are watching unprecedented forecasted crests on the Skagit River near Concrete and Mount Vernon. The concern is that the pressure and velocity of water could overwhelm even well-maintained structures if there are hidden weak points.
“There is no way to know where the weak spots are, which means there’s also no way to tell where the water is gonna go if it breaks through the dikes,” Harrison said.
Critically, levee failures could flood roads surrounding La Conner, potentially cutting off evacuation route access through Conway and Interstate 5, Asbe said. If that happens, the best route out of town will be over the Rainbow Bridge, through the Swinomish reservation and Anacortes.
Pressure on two dike districts
La Conner is close to two dike districts, District 12, which covers a large area along Highway 20, and the much smaller District 9, which Commissioner Dave Hedlin said does not protect the town but the Dodge Valley area.
Dike District 9 borders the Sullivan Slough dike, which is privately owned by the Hedlin family and is meant to block coastal flooding. Johnny Burg, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Seattle Forecast Office, said there was an advisory for minor coastal flooding in effect from 7 a.m. to 1 p.m. Wednesday, but the town didn’t see any seawater flowing in during that time frame.
Burg said that while there is still a chance for minor coastal flooding to occur Thursday, it would be significantly less concerning than a riverine flood from the Skagit River.
Mayor Marna Hanneman said the real threat to La Conner would be a failure in District 12, with the potential for the Skagit River’s waters reaching the town.
“We are not in control — what the weather is gonna do is what the weather is gonna do. Trying to mitigate some of that is all we can do,” she said.
Preparing for the worst
Town employees and officials worked from the early hours Wednesday to prepare for the worst.
Chris Smith, the town’s Public Works foreman, said that Public Works has staged about 5,000 sandbags and 180 Ecology blocks in protective barriers, with pumps ready and crews monitoring the channel in person. The department has left some gaps in barriers, he said, largely to discourage people from climbing over or lingering near the defenses. If conditions shift, he said crews can move quickly to seal openings.
Some debris from upriver flooding is expected to enter the channel, Smith added, and Public Works is watching closely for anything that could affect flow or infrastructure.
For now, officials continue urging residents to stay alert, avoid walking on dikes and follow county and town updates closely through the weekend as the Skagit’s record surge tests the lower-valley levee system.
The lesson of 1990: when Fir Island failed
The Skagit River has a long flood history, but La Conner residents still measure today’s risk against November 1990, when a levee break on Fir Island triggered the valley’s most destructive flood and widespread evacuations.
“We moved some tractors up to Chuck Hedlund’s on Pleasant Ridge,” remembered Dean Swanson, whose family farm is off La Conner-Whitney Road just north of town.
“In the nineties, we started thinking this was going to happen on an almost yearly basis,” he said. “The county went to work on raising and strengthening our levees big time after that.”
During that event, a major section of Fir Island’s dike system failed and floodwater spread quickly across the delta, forcing residents from homes and overwhelming roads and farmland.
“I was in a kayak on the river when the Fir Island dike broke. I rode my bike to Conway shortly after that,” recalls a local known as Red Dan, who lives along the Skagit River. “It was a trip.”
Red Dan said he is evacuating Thursday mid-morning to a hotel in Anacortes.
“The high tide backs up the river current,” he said. “I have survived a lifetime on the water by being careful.”
Businesses brace, but stay calm
Tuesday, business owners along the waterfront in La Conner said they are taking precautions informed by past floods, even as they hope to avoid severe impacts.
Greg Whiting, co-owner of Raven’s Cup Coffee & Art Gallery on First Street, recalled that during the 2022 flood, water entered through the front door and floor and crept about 10 feet into the business. Since then, he said, he has learned to keep items a few inches above the ground.
Doug LeClair, one of the artists featured at the La Conner Artists Gallery inside the Pier 7 building on the channel, said artwork has been moved up slightly or placed inside tall plastic containers as a preventive measure.
Melissa Bellos, a waitress at Waterfront Café inside Pier 7, said the 2022 flood reached only the restaurant’s storage room. Since then, she said, supplies are kept higher as routine practice during flood season.
Dave Hedlin of Hedlin Farms, on Chillberg Road, said his family has moved 13 horses to a safer location and moved equipment that can’t get wet to higher ground.
A question of time
Town officials said sensors in the Swinomish Channel are already showing a higher-than-normal concentration of fresh water near the surface, indicating the channel is being impacted by river swelling upstream.
“All the fresh water from the river raised the tide a bit, but the real concern (for La Conner) is if there is a dike failure in the area,” Asbe said. “The other thing that makes us different is that it takes hours – 12 to 24 hours – for the water to make its way from the failure over to here. … Peak water flows are going to be (Thursday) at Concrete and Mount Vernon (on early Friday), and we are all watching very carefully what happens to them.”
Asbe said that lag time gives La Conner more warning than some upriver communities if a breach happens. But it also means the town’s risk remains high after upriver crests begin to fall, especially if dikes fail during or after the peak pressure window.
Luisa Loi, Kari Mar and Bill Reynolds contributed to this report.
